In the past few days, the photovoltaic sector, which has been quiet for more than a year, has suddenly started as a whole, the related stocks have risen sharply in the short term, and the sector index has continued to strengthen. In this regard, industry insiders told this reporter that after the "6.30" this year, the industry performance surpassed expectations and a number of policy benefits, as well as a relatively low valuation of the sector, were the main reasons for this round of PV stock market changes However, it remains to be seen whether the future market will continue.
"Recently, the profit margins of silicon wafers, batteries, and modules have all risen sharply. This round of supply and demand tensions caused by rush installation has not been broken since the '6.30' period. The online time was postponed to '9 · 30', which also brought part of the rush installation demand, making the overall profit of photovoltaic companies, especially midstream companies, still maintain a good level. "Liu Yang, chief operating officer of Quanmin PV, reported to Shanghai Securities News yesterday The reporter said.
Data show that the current price of photovoltaic modules in the market continues to be firm, with polycrystalline modules reported at 2.8 to 2.9 yuan / watt and monocrystalline modules at 3 to 3.2 yuan / watt. First-line component companies have full orders, and product demand exceeds supply. Some people even think that component prices will remain at this level even by the end of the year. Some component sales have been released to the public, and will increase the offer within the month.
It is worth noting that the recent policies related to the photovoltaic industry have also undergone positive changes. According to the website information of the Ministry of Land and Resources, the afternoon of September 5th, the Minister of Land and Resources Jiang Daming chaired the 19th Ministerial Office Meeting to review and adopt in principle the "Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of Photovoltaic Power Generation Land (Draft for Review)" Multiple documents included. It is reported that this review draft has made amendments to the relevant regulations on photovoltaic land and can be "unbundled" under certain conditions.
In addition, the General Department of the National Energy Administration recently issued a letter asking for opinions on the “Notice on Reducing the Tax and Fee Burden on Renewable Energy-related Enterprises”, clarifying the tax and fee reduction policies for renewable energy companies. One of the specific conditions is a 50% VAT refund policy for photovoltaic power generation products, which is extended from the end of 2018 to the end of 2020.
"Under the dual impetus of scale effect and technological progress, the photovoltaic industry chain will reach parity on the Internet just around the corner, and the industry's profit center will shift from components and power stations to polysilicon materials and monocrystalline silicon wafers in the midstream," said an industry researcher.
In this regard, Liu Yang believes that parity on the Internet will definitely be realized by 2019, the revenue of photovoltaic power stations will be more and more certain, and the core competitiveness of the industry will further increase by then. At the same time, the gross profit margin of photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises, especially upstream, will return to rationality in the future, but it is hard to say how the midstream will be. Regardless, the revenue of photovoltaic companies before the third quarter of this year will definitely be better.
"In the short term, the industry does not have a sudden change in fundamentals, but in the medium and long term, the country attaches more and more importance to environmental protection, and new energy is a fundamental solution to improve the environment. As the central government ’s environmental protection inspections increase this year, The market ’s increased attention to related industries may be one of the reasons why the capital market has started to pay attention to the photovoltaic sector. ”Ma Yi, vice president of photovoltaic billion, said in an interview with the Shanghai Securities News yesterday.
He said that the current photovoltaic industry does have some favorable factors. The first is that the new installed capacity in 2017 exceeded expectations: from the generally expected 25-30 GW at the beginning of the year to the current 45-50 GW. Among them, the first half of the first half of the installation and the second half of the leader, poverty alleviation, and market expectations of the end of the year, spontaneous self-use distributed photovoltaic rush installation, contributed a major force. In the first half of the year, the new photovoltaic installations surpassed thermal power, and for the first time became the largest power source in China's new installed electricity installations.
Earlier, the photovoltaic grid-connected data released by CLP in July showed that the monthly grid-connected volume in July was as high as 10.5 GW, again exceeding market expectations.
"On the other hand, the parity on-grid of the distributed photovoltaic user side has been realized in 2016, and the parity on-grid of 'distributed photovoltaic + energy storage power' will soon be achieved in 2018. As a result, PV's first 'subsidy' since 2004 The “big cycle” will end, and the next “parity internet big cycle” has begun. ”Ma said that the current round of PV panels showed an increase in capital, and from the consensus expectations of industry researchers, the industry valuation level Also lower.
However, he expressed cautious optimism about the future trend.
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